Trade Direction for Nifty50 Stocks on 1st January

Technical Analysis - Tata Steel

Tata Steel is moving in an upward channel. Now the price has reached its upper end of the channel at 436. It is recommended to go short on this stock with "daily close" above 436 as SL. target 425, 415 and 406

ACC - Triangle Pattern

As discussed below ACC is about o breakout the Triangle on the bullish side....do not miss long opportunity for 50 to 100 points profit

ACC has been in uptrend form June 2012 and moved up from 1115 to 1535. From November onwards it is form higher lows pattern but not forming lower lows patter which is not bearish. Now with this pattern it fall into a "Triangle" pattern marked in lines and indicated with arrows. On break below lower line of the triangle it can fall further and breaking the top line is bullish for the stock. Breakout on either direction will result in 5-10% movement in stock price very quickly. Hence recommend to follow the stock very closely in the coming days for break out.

Trade Direction for Nifty50 Stocks on 31st December

Trading Ideas for 28th December

09:00 IST Buy Bharti Airtel at 317 at open (pre-open) SL 306 Target 339 made high of 323.4, positional trades hold as long as it close above 318 on daily basis for 336-39 target

Hindalco

After being in 105-125 zone for over 6 months, touch both points 6 times, it has broke the range with considerable volumes., hence recommend buy

Current Price 129
Support/Stoploss: Close below 126 (Traders), 124 (Investors/Positional Traders)
Resistance/Target: 131, 134, 139, 142.
Add more on close above 136.

Cairn India

Cairn India has been moving in 300-340 zone from May 2012 touching upper and lower range 7 times during this 7 months period. Now it is trading at (314) the lower end of the range, hence recommend buy with SL of close below 300

TCS

After being consolidated at lower levels, TCS is now entering into its earlier consolidation zone between 1266-1348. Investor can start buying TCS as SiP from current price and on close above 1290, 1323, 1350 and 1400. Initial SL will be close below 1250 and after 2nd entry close below 1280, after 3rd entry close below 1315 and after 4th entry close below 1330 and after 5th entry 1360.

Coal India

Coal India is trading around 355 with supports placed at 348 and 345. Buy Coal India form current price to 348 with SL at 347 or 343 (depending on risk profile) and add more positions on daily close above 357 for targets 364, 368, 373. Positional Traders/Investors can add positions on close above 375 for target close to 400.

Trade Direction for Nifty50 Stocks on 26th December

Nifty Technicals

As seen from the following chart and various lines drawn, Nifty is moving  in a channel following Fibonacci Extensions from lows of 4770 made on 4th June 2012. If the pattern continue in coming days/weeks, Nifty will have its first supports at 5815, 5750 and 5700. If the the uptrend that started on 4th June 2012 were to be continued Nifty will have a target of 6200 in coming days/weeks with resistances placed at 5950, 6025, 6110 and 6160. A sustained break below 5680 will invalidate this pattern and then Nifty trend will turn -ve with resistance at 5700.

NIFTY Daily Chart

Trade Direction for Nifty50 Stocks on 24th December

Trade Direction for Nifty5o Stocks on 21st December

SYMBOL	TRADE	PRICE
ACC	Short Below	1,409.72
AMBUJACEM	Long Above	206.71
ASIANPAINT	Long Above	4,327.92
AXISBANK	Short Below	1,344.27
BAJAJ-AUTO	Long Above	2,105.81
BANKBARODA	Long Above	847.24
BHARTIARTL	Long Above	311.28
BHEL	Long Above	227.95
BPCL	Long Above	350.93
CAIRN	Short Below	324.94
CIPLA	Long Above	413.03
COALINDIA	Long Above	354.11
DLF	Long Above	221.05
DRREDDY	Long Above	1,847.80
GAIL	Long Above	347.58
GRASIM	Long Above	3,196.21
HCLTECH	Long Above	634.09
HDFC	Short Below	842.32
HDFCBANK	Long Above	682.78
HEROMOTOCO	Long Above	1,886.01
HINDALCO	Long Above	124.96
HINDUNILVR	Long Above	522.70
ICICIBANK	Long Above	1,139.19
IDFC	Long Above	174.82
INFY	Long Above	2,279.04
ITC	Short Below	292.11
JPASSOCIAT	Long Above	101.87
JINDALSTEL	Long Above	446.32
KOTAKBANK	Long Above	662.67
LT	Short Below	1,639.18
LUPIN	Long Above	609.57
M&M	Long Above	959.45
MARUTI	Long Above	1,495.06
NTPC	Long Above	154.09
ONGC	Long Above	260.68
PNB	Long Above	840.02
POWERGRID	Short Below	116.72
RANBAXY	Long Above	506.19
RELIANCE	Long Above	836.32
RELINFRA	Long Above	521.02
SBIN	Long Above	2,346.10
SESAGOA	Long Above	192.75
SIEMENS	Short Below	674.74
SUNPHARMA	Long Above	736.46
TATAMOTORS	Long Above	298.16
TATAPOWER	Long Above	106.32
TATASTEEL	Long Above	409.33
TCS	Long Above	1,226.07
ULTRACEMCO	Long Above	1,998.35
WIPRO	Long Above	377.45

Trade Ideas on NIFTY 50 Stocks for 19th December

Trade Ideas on NIFTY 50 Stocks

ACC	Short Below	1,412.85
AMBUJACEM	Short Below	207.46
ASIANPAINT	Short Below	4,294.77
AXISBANK	Long Above	1,340.26
BAJAJ-AUTO	Long Above	2,077.65
BANKBARODA	Long Above	832.57
BHARTIARTL	Short Below	311.11
BHEL	Short Below	228.23
BPCL	Short Below	351.79
CAIRN	Long Above	322.79
CIPLA	Long Above	410.70
COALINDIA	Short Below	354.22
DLF	Long Above	217.98
DRREDDY	Short Below	1,858.76
GAIL	Short Below	347.31
GRASIM	Long Above	3,167.57
HCLTECH	Long Above	625.89
HDFC	Short Below	853.16
HDFCBANK	Short Below	686.59
HEROMOTOCO	Long Above	1,875.53
HINDALCO	Long Above	120.53
HINDUNILVR	Short Below	524.63
ICICIBANK	Long Above	1,130.12
IDFC	Short Below	174.29
INFY	Short Below	2,281.59
ITC	Short Below	297.05
JPASSOCIAT	Short Below	102.58
JINDALSTEL	Long Above	428.36
KOTAKBANK	Long Above	661.00
LT	Long Above	1,643.26
LUPIN	Short Below	606.34
M&M	Long Above	950.54
MARUTI	Long Above	1,483.50
NTPC	Long Above	153.26
ONGC	Short Below	259.47
PNB	Long Above	831.29
POWERGRID	Short Below	117.24
RANBAXY	Long Above	502.93
RELIANCE	Short Below	833.53
RELINFRA	Short Below	519.97
SBIN	Long Above	2,312.63
SESAGOA	Long Above	188.20
SIEMENS	Short Below	680.90
SUNPHARMA	Long Above	722.97
TATAMOTORS	Long Above	288.74
TATAPOWER	Long Above	106.16
TATASTEEL	Long Above	397.66
TCS	Short Below	1,223.74
ULTRACEMCO	Long Above	1,974.09
WIPRO	Short Below	374.80

Trading Ideas for 14th December

13:55 IST Buy LT 1650CE at 25, Target 30 Target achieved

Trading Ideas 13th December

15:00 IST Buy Reliance 840 CE at 11.5 Target 17 14th December: Target achieved

14:17 IST Buy JPASSOCIATES 100CE at 5.3 Target 7 14th December: Exited at 5.4

14:12 IST Buy Infy 2300CE at 34 Target 50 14th December: Exited at 44

Nifty Technicals

After nice retracement from its low (4530) formed from 6370 fall, now NIFTY is facing resistance at its 78.2% Fibonacci retracement level @ 5970. Though it briefly crossed above this level, it could not sustain but fell back immediately. Now 5970-6010 area will be trend deciding range for the nifty in coming days/weeks. 5970 is not only 78.2% Fibonacci retracement but also a resistance of the trend line that (acted as support & resistance several times) was drawn from September 2009.

10 Price Action Tips

What is price action?

Price action for swing traders is the art of looking at individual candles to determine the probable direction of a stock - without using any technical indicators.

Ultimately, analyzing price action tells you who is in control of a stock. It also tells you who is losing control: the buyers or the sellers. Once you are able to determine this, you can pinpoint reversals in a stock and make money.

Learn the price action tips on this page and I guarantee you that you will be a better swing trader.

Let's begin.

Tip #1. Identify support and resistance levels

This is a no brainer. Identifying support and resistance levels is one of the first things you learn in technical analysis. It is the most important aspect of chart reading. But, how many traders really pay attention to it? Not many. Most are too busy looking at Stochastics, MACD, and other nonsense.

Some traders think that a support or resistance level is a specific price. Wrong. It's an area on a stock chart. Let me give you an example.



The areas that I have highlighted are the correct support and resistance levels. Often times you will hear traders say something like this: "The support level for XYZ stock is $28.76." This is wrong. It's an area - not a specific price.

Tip #2. Analyze swing points

Swing points (some call them "pivot points") are those areas on a stock chart where important short term reversals take place. But not all swing points are created equal. If fact, your decision to buy a pullback will depend upon the prior swing point. Here is an example:



Look at the area that I have highlighted in green. You may have considered buying this pullback. Now look at the prior swing point high (yellow highlighted). There are two problems with buying this pullback. First, there isn't much room to work with! The distance between the pullback and the prior high is too small. You need more room to run so that you can at least get your stop to break even.

The second problem is this: The prior high (yellow area) is composed of a cluster of candles. This is a strong resistance area! So, it will be very difficult for a stock to break through this area. Instead, look to trade pullbacks where the prior high is only composed of one or two candles.

Tip #3. Look for wide range candles

Wide range candles mark important changes in sentiment on every chart - in every time frame. They mark important turning points and can often be used to identify reversals. Take a look at the following stock chart:



This stock was moving lower in October (highlighted) and then suddenly it dropped more significantly than on previous days. This created the wide range candle and it marked an important turning point (actually the bottom!).

You can also use wide range candles to identify when a stock might reverse. Looking at the same chart...



This stock reversed inside of prior wide range candles. Why would a stock do this? Because all of the traders that missed out on "the big move" now have a second chance to get in. This buying pressure causes the reversal. Simple, huh?

Tip #4. Narrow range candles lead to explosive moves

Narrow range candles can also tell you that a reversal is imminent. This low volatility environment can lead to explosive moves.



Narrow range candles tell you that the previous momentum has slowed down. Buyers and sellers are in equilibrium but eventually one of them will take control of the stock!

Tip #5. Find rejected price levels

On candlestick charts, lower or upper shadows on candles usually means that there is a hammer candlestick pattern or a shooting star candlestick pattern (if the shadow is long enough). Regardless of the name, these shadows mean one thing: A price level has been rejected.



Imagine what this hammer candle looked like during the day (before it became a hammer). It was really bearish! But, at some point during the day, the bulls rejected the lower price level. I can imagine the bulls saying, "Hey wait a just a second. You bears have taken this too far. This stock is worth much more than the price that you moved it to."

And the buying begins.

Tip #6. Learn the 50% rule

How can you tell if a candle is significant? Easy. Look to see how far it has moved into the prior days range. If it moves at least 50% into the prior days range, then it is significant. And, it is especially significant if it closes at least 50% into the prior days range. This usually shows up on the stock chart as a piercing candlestick pattern or an engulfing candlestick pattern.

Here is an example:



All of the important reversals in this stock happened only after a candle moved at least 50% into the prior days range (some moved much more than 50%).

This concept is so powerful that I am suspicious of buying any pullback unless it moves at least 50% into the prior days range.

Tip #7. The gap and trap price pattern

All gaps are important "tells" on any stock chart. But, there is one type of gap that is especially important when analyzing price action (and pinpointing reversals). This is called a gap and trap. This is a stock that gaps down at the open but then closes the day above the opening price. It is easier to see this on a chart...



You can probably see what is happening here. The stock gaps down at the open. Everyone thinks this stock is going to tank. But it doesn't! Buyers come in and move this stock right back up. You can look at one of these candles and almost see all of the confused faces on other stock traders!

Tip #8. Measure the depth of a swing

How far does a stock move into the prior swing? More than halfway or less? The answer to these questions are important because it can determine the future direction of the stock. Let me give you an example:



The price action moved about halfway down (arrow) into the prior swing (dotted line). This is good. If it retraced more than that, you may want to question the validity of the move. This is because a stock in a strong trend should not retrace more than halfway into a prior swing. It should encounter buying pressure sooner than the half way mark. And many times stocks will reverse right at the halfway mark.

Tip #9. Consecutive up days and consecutive down days

Stocks will reverse direction after consecutive up days or down days. So, it pays to keep this in mind when you are looking to buy or short a stock. Here is an example:



You should always look to short a stock after consecutive up days. And, you should look to buy a stock after consecutive down days. This is counter intuitive for new traders because they tend to associate a stock going down as "bad" (meaning sell) and a stock going up as "good" (meaning buy). In fact, it is just the opposite!

Tip #10. Location of price in a trend

You have heard the saying, "The trend is your friend." I say, "The beginning of a trend is your friend!" That is because some of the best moves occur at the very beginning of a trend...



This stock broke out (horizontal line) from a double bottom (circled). A new trend has begun. So, you want to buy this stock on the first pullback (arrow) after the breakout.

So, there you have it. These price action tips and tricks will make you money in the stock market.

You can use this information to make your own trading strategies and systems. Best of all, once you master this art, you will never have to rely on technical indicators again to make trading decisions.

They won't be necessary.

What next for NIFTY?

Here is a self explanatory NIFTY weekly chart. The pink trend line that started in October 2009 acted as Support/Resistance line several times and broke 3 times and each time when it broke NIFTY moved significantly in that direction.

Now again, the price is very close to (just under) the trend line. So watch closely for the nifty move in the coming week(s) for confirmation of cross/reversal! A confirmation here may provide trading opportunity for 200-500 points on either side...let us wait and watch!